Global Security Monitor | the blog of the Center for Advanced Defense Studies

November 9, 2012
by Alex Friedfeld
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USCENTCOM: The United States Should Not Provide Arms to Syrian Rebels

Author: Alex Friedfeld

Date: 8 November, 2012

Category: Political, Military

Actors: Syria, Free Syrian Army, United States

As Syria continues to be embroiled in conflict, some feel that the rebel Free Syrian Army would be able to defeat Assad and end a bloody stalemate if only the rebels had more powerful weaponry. America’s current policy is to not supply the Syrian rebels with weapons. Instead, the United States assists its Arab allies to distribute light weapons such as rifles and grenades. Several prominent American politicians, including former presidential candidate Mitt Romney and Senator John McCain, have called for the United States to supply the Syrian rebels with advanced arms and ammunition. Those who agree with this view maintain that providing arms would avert a humanitarian crisis, limit the spread of extremism, and contain the spread of violence. However, I believe that supplying such arms would exacerbate the spreading conflict and increase its human toll, and that it would not necessarily make the new regime more amenable to US interests.

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October 31, 2012
by Sarah Schwartz
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USAFRICOM: Threats to women’s rights in Tunisia – Signs of Ennahda’s poor governance

Author: Sarah Schwartz

Date: October 31, 2012

Category: Political, Social

Actors: Ennahda, National Constituent Assembly, Tunisian Security Forces

In 2011 elections, Tunisians empowered the moderate Islamist party Ennahda, which won control of the National Constituent Assembly (NCA) with a 37% plurality of votes. Although Ennahda has pledged to protect women’s rights, activists worry that its core (rural, conservative) constituency may support an erosion of the extensive freedoms to which Tunisian women have been entitled since shortly after the country’s independence. Although there has been little direct indication that the governing body intends to use its legislative power to roll back the rights of Tunisian women, recent violence and increasing hostility against women in Tunisia suggest that women’s status in the country may be in jeopardy.
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October 26, 2012
by Anne Hobson
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USSOUTHCOM: Cuba’s Travel Reform—“The Devil’s In the Details”

Author: Anne Hobson
Date: 26 October, 2012
Category: Political, Economic
Actors: United States, Cuba

Raul Castro announced that Cuban citizens—excluding some professionals—will no longer have to apply for exit permits and will not need letters of invitation to travel abroad. This policy takes effect January 14th of 2013. Known locally as “a white card,” the permits cost $150, which is more than the average Cuban makes in 7 months. Raul Castro’s new policy is the latest move in a trend toward liberalization; yet, in many ways the policy is more symbolic than practical. The Cuban regime depends on public perception of its leaders as capable revolutionaries. Thus, Castro’s new exit permit policy serves as a display of control and a statement of Cuban sovereignty in the face of the memory of its manipulation at the hand of two superpowers during the Cold War. However, the 50th anniversary of the missile crisis should remind US and Cuban leaders that it is time to move past this bitterness and embrace more drastic changes.

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October 15, 2012
by Anne Hobson
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USCENTCOM: The Secret War in Yemen

Author: Anne Hobson
Date: 15 October, 2012
Category: Political, Military
Actors: United States, Yemen, AQAP

As the United States enters the twelfth year of the War on Terror, the counterterrorism effort has challenged the premises of international law. Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) armed with Hellfire missiles with targeting capabilities have replaced special forces and manned aircraft as the U.S. tactic of choice against militants. According to the American Security Project, the U.S. military operates UAVs in declared combat zones—Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya—while the CIA operates covert UAV programs in Pakistan, Somalia and Yemen. These programs raise concerns about oversight, international human rights, and international laws governing warfare. If the White House doesn’t address concerns regarding the most recent UAV attacks in Yemen, the U.S. risks setting a dangerous precedent for UAV warfare worldwide.

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October 12, 2012
by Alex Friedfeld
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USEUCOM: The Purpose of Netanyahu’s Red Line

Author: Alex Friedfeld

Date: 12 October, 2012

Category: Political, Military

Actors: Israel, Iran, Benjamin Netanyahu

On September 27, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the United Nations General Assembly. While discussing the Iranian nuclear threat, Netanyahu produced a cartoon drawing of a bomb and drew a red line to indicate that Israel would attack Iran before Iran enters the “final stage” of its nuclear development. I will argue that Netanyahu’s red line lacks credibility because of Israel’s military limitations, opposition from the Obama administration, and a history of Israeli public officials engaging in saber rattling. Instead, Netanyahu’s address was designed to garner international and domestic support for his government. Continue Reading →

September 26, 2012
by Sarah Schwartz
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USCENTCOM: Domestic Grievances Underlie Recent Protests in Egypt and Tunisia

Author: Sarah Schwartz
Date: September 26, 2012
Category: Political
Actors: Tunisia, Egypt, Mohamed Morsi, Ennahda

The recent protests at US embassies in over twenty countries were widely attributed to anger against the inflammatory film “Innocence of Muslims.” While many protesters specifically stated that the video had incited them to protest, news outlets, attributing these protests to so-called “Muslim rage” over a derogatory film, are both erroneous and negligent of the larger societal issues that led thousands of Muslim youths to join in the protests. In her recent GSM article, Anne Hobson discussed the political and social grievances in Yemen underlying the protests at the US embassy in Sana’a. In this article, I will discuss the societal factors behind violent protests in Tunisia and Egypt, two countries at the heart of the 2011 Arab Spring. While evidence shows that these protests did not begin organically within the populations of Cairo and Tunis, widespread grievances over governance in Egypt and Tunisia did sustain them.

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September 21, 2012
by Alex Friedfeld
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USCENTCOM: NATO Suspension of Joint Operations Political in Nature

Author: Alex Friedfeld

Date: 21 September, 2012

Category: Political, Military

Actors: Afghanistan, NATO

On September 18, the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) announced that it will curtail joint operations between NATO forces and Afghan security forces for the foreseeable future. NATO officials claim that this decision is the result of insider attacks by local Afghan soldiers against foreign troops. In actuality, the announcement is motivated by politics. The attacks provide NATO leaders with a reason to start shifting the majority of security responsibilities to Afghan security forces and begin winding down NATO involvement in Afghanistan.

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September 21, 2012
by Anne Hobson
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USCENTCOM: The U.S. Embassy Protest in Yemen

Author: Anne Hobson
Date: 21 September, 2012
Category: Political, Military, Economic
Actors: President Hadi, AQAP, Central Security Forces

Reporters continue to blame the film Innocence of Muslims for the continuing protests in the Middle East. Because of the anti-Islam message of the film, religious intolerance has reentered international news dialogue. Rather than continuing to view the protest in Yemen as a consequence of the film and its religious message, it is important to consider social, economic and political conditions facing the protesters. The violence suggests a deeper discontent, and indicates the involvement of extremists and political groups who benefit from unrest and media attention. I will evaluate the Thursday, September 13th protest at the U.S. embassy in Yemen to identify the real causes of the Middle East protests.

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September 19, 2012
by Sarah Schwartz
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USAFRICOM: Libyan Consulate Attacks Suggest Flawed US Policy

Author: Sarah Schwartz
Date: September 19, 2012
Location: Benghazi, Libya
Category: Political
Actors: Libya, United States

On September 11, US Ambassador to Libya Christopher Stevens was killed in an attack on the US consulate in Benghazi, a tragedy which reveals the state of terrorist activity within Libya and suggests flaws in US diplomatic policy in that country. Initial reports implied that Ambassador Stevens’ death resulted from protests over an inflammatory movie that sparked earlier protests in Egypt. However, more recent reports have suggested that the rocket-powered grenade attack that resulted in the death of Ambassador Stevens and three other State Department employees was in fact a calculated attack against the United States, using the popular protest as a cover. Two main pieces of evidence suggest that this attack was premeditated: the advanced weaponry used in the attack and the fact that there were apparently two separate, coordinated attacks. Whether or not a militant group did commit a premeditated attack against the US consulate, the State Department must rethink its approach to diplomatic involvement in Libya.
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